As the Catholic Church’s cardinals prepared to go into their enclave to elect a new Pope earlier this month, there were speculations that the world might get its first African Pope. It didn’t turn out that way, but the possibility was quite intriguing.
The foremost African candidates were Nigeria’s Cardinal Francis Arinze and Ghana’s Peter Turkson. Had either been elected pope, black men would behold what could well be the two most powerful positions in the world; the other being the presidency of the US.
It would have been quite a fitting development. After all, the second decade of the third millennium in the Common Era is generally held to be the decade of Africa.
When the South Korean national Ban Ki Moon was elected the secretary general of the United Nations, one of his first acts was to declare 2011 the year of Africa. Given that it doesn’t do much good to devote just one year to a continent as vast as Africa, Moon’s proclamation has for practical purposes meant a reference to the decade.
Such proclamations don’t always translate into much. For instance, the United Nations General Assembly declared the 1980s the “Industrial Development Decade for Africa.” That decade turned out to be one of the most traumatic for many African countries, both economically and politically.
This time though, it is quite different. Both symbolically and substantively, Africa is gaining centrality in global affairs in ways that have not happened in our lifetime, perhaps ever.
Symbolically, FIFA’s staging of three levels of the World Cup in Africa back to back was a consciousness statement of the emerging reality.
The U-20 World Cup was played in Egypt in 2009, followed in the same year by the U-17 tournament in Nigeria. Then came the 2010 World Cup competition in South Africa to formally begin the decade of Africa with a flash.
Of course, a continent does not live by World Cups alone. Part of the declaration of the year or decade of Africa was the pledge of massive economic assistance to Africa. But with Europe tethering on economic disaster and the US still recovering from its own near collapse, the massive aid never materialised.
Still, Africa has held its own. Unlike the 1980s, most African countries are undergoing significant economic growth and democratic consolidation.
According to the Economist — a magazine that had been uncharitable to Africa —the growth of the GDP of African countries has overtaken that of Asian countries. And it dates back to 2000.
“At first, people doubted that the growth would be sustainable,” Sebastian Mallaby of the Economist wrote in January. “But, after a dozen years of progress, uninterrupted even by enormous shocks to the world economy, that worry has faded.”
Among the factors has been improved economic management, as well as growing foreign investment. China in particular has targeted Africa for investment and economic assistance. In July last year, it pledged $20 billion in loan over three years for Africa’s infrastructural developments.
Western countries looking for diversified places for investment are also finding Africa. In 2011, America’s largest retailer, Walmart, bought a majority share in South Africa-based Massmart for $2.4 billion.
Given that Massmart has 340 stores spread across 12 sub-Saharan African countries, Walmart has in effect become a retailer in all those countries. In Nigeria alone, Massmart executives foresee the building of 20 stores.
Because of its practice of muscling out competitors and underpaying workers, Walmart comes under much criticism in the US. And, already there are concerns about its impact in Africa.
On the positive side, Walmart built its large consumer base in the US by offering products of reasonable quality for relatively low prices. And it is one of America’s largest employers.
Whatever its impact in Africa, what is certain is that no region of the world can thrive without the infusion of global capital. Even communist (better still, semi-communist) China is thriving on it.
Despite Africa’s economic surge, it still falls far short of meeting the United Nations’ millennial development goals for 2015. But the shortfall reflects the considerable ground that had to be made up.
One cannot write about the decade of Africa without commenting on matters of governance. And in this regard, the progress is substantive in some countries and tenuous in others.
In countries such as Benin, Ghana, Zambia and, yes, Nigeria, democracy is truly taking hold, despite evident shortfalls and challenges. In Sierra Leone and Liberia, which went through horrific and prolonged civil wars, democracy is also taking hold.
Kenya, which experienced a bloodbath following elections in 2007, used that experience to craft a new constitution that diminished presidential powers and improved confidence in the electoral process.
The revision seems to have already paid dividends. Though the recently concluded national elections also yielded disputed outcomes, the reaction has been markedly different. Rather than resorting to carnage, Kenyans are using the judicial process.
Zimbabwe also is in the process of instituting a constitutional amendment that would diminish the president’s power and institute term limits. But the new provisions will not kick in until after the five-year term of the forthcoming presidential elections, thus likely preserving President Robert Mugabe’s powers for quite some time.
Like Zimbabwe, there are a number of sub-Saharan African countries that still retain the characteristics of post-independence Africa. That is, they have entrenched leaders in democratic garbs. Most notable among them are Chad, Eritrea, Uganda and Rwanda.
In Chad, Idriss Deby has been president for about 23 years under a constitution that gives him virtually unchecked powers. Eritrea has been in constitutional limbo since its breakaway from Ethiopia in 1993. Its president, Isaias Afworki, is the head of state, head of government and head of the legislature.
What more needs to be said of Uganda under Yoweri Museveni and Rwanda under Paul Kagame? Like Chad and Eritrea, these countries have maintained a measure of stability under iron-fisted leadership. What becomes of them when the grip is loosened one way or another will likely become the story of Africa in the next decade or so.
As I am writing this column, the similarly entrenched President François Bozizé of the Central African Republic has been forced by rebel forces to flee to Cameroon.
The North African countries of Tunisia, Egypt and Libya, which recently ousted similarly entrenched presidents, are still grappling with the challenges of establishing a democratic order.
How these challenges are resolved will largely determine the concluding storyline of the decade of Africa. For now, it is quite in order the wax positive.
PS: Adieu to Chinua Achebe. What an illustrious life!